AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market News and Commentary

Corn futures are trading about 1 cent per bushel lower this morning. The Fed is still expected to raise short term interest rates this afternoon, but the markets are very uncertain about the “… the fact” reaction. Corn ended Tuesday with 1 to 1 3/4 cent gains in most nearby contracts. The weekly EIA report showing ethanol production and stocks for the week of 12/14 will be released on Wednesday. DTN’s national cash average for corn was reported at $3.51 on Tuesday. That puts national basis at -34 cents, 4 1/4 stronger than last year, which is a function of the export program and projections for tighter year end stocks. Ukraine’s UZA estimates corn exports at 27 MMT for 18/19, vs. the USDA at 28 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Market News and Commentary

Soybean futures are currently fractionally lower after settling 2 to 3 1/4 cents higher on Tuesday. Preliminary open interest dropped 4,213 contracts, hinting at some short covering mixed in with all the Jan to March spreading ahead of January options expiration on Friday. Nearby soy meal was up $1.30/ton, with soy oil 24 points higher. As of Tuesday evening, DTN reported a national average soybean cash price of $8.23. That put the national basis at -83 3/4 cents. It has improved dramatically since September, and some locations firmed a nickel yesterday on fresh export potential. Wire reports rumored Chinese buying of an unspecified additional quantity of US soybeans, any purchases over 100,000 MT should be reported by the USDA’s daily system. There are also rumblings about drought stress in parts of Parana (Brazil).

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents lower this morning with Minneapolis the firmest as the spreads relax from yesterday’s move. They ended the Turnaround Tuesday session with most CBT and KC contracts 2 to 5 cents lower. MPLS was down 5 to 8 1/2 cents. Now that we’ve switched to nearby March, the front month CBT-KC spread is down to 15 1/2 cents. That is likely a result of strengthening HRW exports. It was briefly over 40 cents a few weeks ago. Japan’s weekly Ministry of Ag tender is for 71,040 MT of US and 35,060 MT of Canadian wheat, with the tender to close on Thursday. A Ukrainian grain traders union estimates the country’s wheat exports for 18/19 at 16 MMT (USDA currently @ 16.5 MMT), with 19/20 exports projected at 18 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market News and Commentary

Live cattle futures saw 45 cent to $1.025 gains in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were up 60 cents to $1.025 on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 65 cents on December 17 at $145.55. Wholesale beef prices were higher. Choice boxes were up a penny at $212.68, with the Select cutout value 97 cents higher at $204.73. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 120,000 head on Tuesday. That brought the WTD total to 228,000 head, 13,000 below last week and 9,000 head fewer than the same week last year. The show list for FCE online auction shows just 255 head for sale, all from KS. Analysts estimate that the December 1 cattle on feed number will be around 11.37 million head on Thursday, up 1.8% from a year ago.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary

Lean Hog futures posted triple digit losses in the front months, with most other contracts 65 to 95 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 4 cents from the previous day @ $55.13 on December 14. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up just 4 cents at $72.00 on Tuesday afternoon. The belly and loin primal cuts were reported lower. The national base cash hog carcass value was 36 cents lower at a weighted average of $45.86. USDA estimated Tuesday’s FI hog slaughter at 477,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 954,000 head. That was 4,000 head lower than the previous week but 12,000 head above a year ago. The average trade estimate calls for the All Hog snout count to be 102.4% of year ago when USDA issues the Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market News and Commentary

Cotton futures are 13 to 14 points lower this morning after they were down 56 to 69 points in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. Crude oil saw sharp $3.64/barrel losses on Tuesday. That means potentially cheaper synthetics. The Fed will announce whether they will raise interest rates on Wednesday afternoon. They are expected to hike short term rates by 0.25%, though future hikes are in question following Chairman Powell’s comments last month. President Trump is on record as saying no rate hike is needed from his perspective. The Cotlook A index was up 5 points from the previous day on Dec 17 at 87.80 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 69.77, good through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com